How the SafeASI forecast is calculated
Every number on the tracker comes from public prediction markets. Here is where the data comes from, how the headline year is computed and what it cannot tell you.
Published 6 October 2026 by Omar Nouha Sane
Where the data comes from
All probabilities come from Manifold Markets, a prediction market where traders bet play money on questions about the future. A market’s price can be read as the probability that traders as a group assign to the outcome.
The tracker uses five markets that each ask whether superintelligence will exist by a certain year: 2030, 2040, 2050, 2075 and 2100. Four further markets cover related questions, such as whether the first superintelligence will come from OpenAI.
A small server at api.safeasi.si fetches the current prices from Manifold and keeps them for ten minutes. Your browser only talks to that server, never directly to Manifold. If the server cannot be reached, the page shows a saved snapshot and says so.
How the headline year is calculated
The five yearly markets form a curve: the chance that superintelligence exists by each year. The headline year is where that curve crosses 50%, the point at which traders think it is as likely as not.
Because there are only five points, the tracker draws straight lines between neighbouring years and finds the crossing on that line. With the snapshot from 5 October 2026:
- By 2030: 36%
- By 2040: 75%
- The 50% point lies between them: 2030 + (50 − 36) ÷ (75 − 36) × 10 ≈ 2033.6
- Rounded, the page shows 2034.
If the 2030 market is already above 50%, the page shows “Before 2030”. If even the 2100 market is below 50%, it shows “After 2100”.
The countdown
The countdown under the year counts down to that exact crossing point. 2033.6, for example, falls around August 2033. It makes the number easier to picture, but it is not a forecast to the second: it moves every time market prices move.
What the numbers cannot tell you
- Play money. Manifold traders do not risk real money, which can make prices less reliable than on real-money markets.
- Few traders. Some markets have only a few dozen traders. The trader count is shown next to every question.
- Separate markets. Each year is its own market, so the curve can be bumpy or flat in places where a single model would be smooth.
- Different definitions. Each question’s creator defines superintelligence in their own words. Read the original question before quoting a number.
- Who resolves the market. A market only pays out if someone is around to resolve it. Prices may therefore leave out scenarios where a catastrophe happens first, which is why the page says “assuming no catastrophe happens first”.
Corrections
If a number looks wrong or a market should be added, write to [email protected] or reach out on X.